The percentage change over a period of time can be obtained from Sen's median slope and mean by assuming the linear trend in the long-term series using the following formula: In statistical terms, the moving average is also known as running average, used in order to explore a set of various data by creating an average value of various subsets for a data set. temperature is high during the daytime in some places, and is considerably reduced at nightresulting maximum difference in the daily range.But in the case of monthly averages, variation is minimal and the annual range of temperature issmall. The researches and analysis in this study indicates that, while climate change is likely to pose serious threats to development in the RM, it also has the potential to bring opportunities. (2014), it was concluded that a general tendency of increasing warm temperature, extreme variability and inconsistent precipitation trend was recorded in Ethiopia. Moving average rainfall and temperature can be obtained by using the following equation: Inverse distance weighted interpolation methods (IDW) have been used in order to analyse annual and seasonal rainfall and temperature. 2005; Batisani & Yarnal 2010; Randell & Gray 2016). The wetness of this region is particularly due to the prepotency of moist aircurrents of equatorial Westerlies called the Guinea Monsoons. The daily observed rainfall and temperature data at eleven stations were obtained from the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia, while simulated historical and future climate data were obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) datasets under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) of 4.5 and 8.5. Social fencing is another mechanism that can be adopted in the region. The correlation between rainfall during the months of MaySeptember and crops has a positive relationship, except in the cases of beans, peas and chickpeas, which are inversely correlated with rainfall during the month of June. 2016). Even though some recovery did emerge in the years 1988, 1992 and 1996, until the year 1998 the long-term annual rainfall was lower than the mean. The majorcontrols determining its distributions are latitude and cloud cover. The capital of Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, is located at an elevation of 7,726 feet, and as such its climate remains relatively cool throughout the year. Mixed crop-livestock is the production system of the area and is perhaps the only source of livelihood for the majority of the population. Rainfall and temperature trends detection is vital for water resources management and decision support systems in agro-hydrology. Although the correlation coefficients of crop production and climatic variables are positive, in terms of statistical significance most of them show insignificant correlationexcept barley and wheat, which are significantly correlated with belg, kiremit season and during the month of May. Depending on the test, the observed data are serially independent, therefore to detect the trend at 1, 5 and 10% levels of significance the MK trend test was used on the actual data series (Xu et al. The production of beans was below 18-year mean in nine years out of 18 years production periods, as indicated in Table5, which accounts for 50% of the total bean production; while in respect of kiremit rainfall pea, chickpea, and lentil production (50, 50 and 55.5% respectively) were below the 18-year mean. For the kiremit (summer season), the main rainfall source is the northward oscillation of ITCZ and the development of high-pressure systems along the southern Atlantic as well as South Indian Oceans. Specifically, we examine and evaluate multi-model, multi-scenario climate change projections and seven extreme temperature and precipitation indices over the eastern Himalaya (EH) and western Himalaya-Karakoram (WH) regions for the 21st century. Over the past decades, the minimum and maximum average temperature of Ethiopia have increased by about 0.25 and 0.1 C, respectively. During this time, thecentral highlands, southeastern highlands and lowlands receives rainfall as the south easterliesbring moist winds. However, it hasno significant coverage compared to other seasons. 2015; Wagesho & Yohannes 2016). Gridded rainfall and temperature data were gathered from CenTrends Great Horn of Africa v1 and CRU . The minimum and maximum temperature have increased by 0.8 and 1.1 C/year, respectively.. Significantly, the increasing long-term annual minimum and maximum temperature during the study periods indicates that it is more likely this would contribute to the increase of mean annual temperature. Our analyses demonstrate that there will be an increase in precipitation intensity and a decrease in frequency over Zambia from the middle of the 21st century. Time series of all MMA precipitation indices exhibit significant increasing trends over the 19012099 period. After total observation of the 35-year period, a record 16 years (45.7%) were lower than the total annual rainfall of the area. In order to correct change points in the time historical series, the Adapted Caussinus Mestre Algorithm for homogenising Networks of Temperature series homogeneity test is used. ABSTRACT: Extreme precipitation exerts damaging impacts on both society and ecosystems. The focus of this study is to investigate the spatiotemporal variability and trends in rainfall and temperature in Alwero watershed in the western part of Ethiopia using a dense network of 4 4 km gridded data (558 points) reconstructed from weather stations and meteorological satellite records which spatially covers the watershed. According to Al-Bakri et al. The Geological Time Scale and Age Dating Techniques, 2.4. 2016). 2014). The shift takes place when the trade winds from the north retreat giving the space forequatorial westerlies. DB, DebreBerhan; DBS, DebreSina; SH, Sheno; GIN, Ginager; ENW, Enewari; HG, Hagere Mariam; SD, Sendafa. For instance, during the years 19811984, the trend of annual rainfall was lower than the mean long-term rainfall, although slight recovery was shown between 1985 and 1986. 2013; Pachauri et al. The guidelines for interpretation are presented in Table1. Finally, Pearson correlation analysis between climatic variables and crop production was analysed. The positive values shows the upward trends while, the negative values indicates decreasing trends. 2011). The CHIRPS was developed by the Climate Hazards Group (CHG) at the University of California (Knapp et al. However, inEthiopia, as it is a highland country, tropical temperature conditions have no full spatialcoverage. Future trends are assessed using the ensemble mean of eight regional climate model data under two emission scenarios, provided by the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). The impact of climate change is a global threat, and its effect is more pronounced in developing countries. In this study, we analyse global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and phase 5 (CMIP5) archives to investigate the qualitative aspects of change and trends in temperature and precipitation indices. All the given crops show considerably high correlation with belg rainfall. Autumn and Spring rainfall regionsThe region comprises areas receiving rain following the influence of southeasterly winds. The northeasterly winds crossing the Red Seacarry very little moisture and supplies rain only to the Afar lowlands and the Red Sea coastalareas.iv. Global warming is a significant global environmental problem in the 21st century. Months in summer gainhighest rainfall whereas the winter months receive the reduced amount. Spatiotemporal Distribution of RainfallRainfall system in Ethiopia is characterized by complexities. Ethiopias daily temperatures are more extreme than its annual averages. Topographic map of the Ziway Lake Basin. Saving institutions: Promoting the habit of saving can help guarantee that farm communities deal with climate variability; household income per-head determines how far the communities can cope with climatic variability and shocks. Following the directness of the Sun inMarch and September around the equator, the ITCZ shifts towards equator. Understanding projections of extreme precipitation is part of a resilient response to its impacts. Warning: file(roboty.txt): failed to open stream: No such file or directory in /home/kmichalski/domains/mikatextiles.com/public_html/ustawienia/init.php on line 0 . 2017a, 2017b). The present study aimed to undertake spatiotemporal analysis of seasonal and annual rainfall and temperature and its implications. Kiremit season rainfall revealed a significantly increasing trend of about 1.62 mm/year and 31.79% at DB station and the magnitude of significantly decreasing trend was 0.90 mm/year and 16.20% at SD station. Both increasing and decreasing trends of climatic variables were observed. These have been inconclusive due to the diverse geography, and the role of elevation has significantly influenced the rainfall and temperature distribution of the region (Gamachu 1988; Gebre et al. Daily maximumtemperature varies from a high of more than 37oC over the lowlands in northeast and southeast toa low of about 10oC-15oC over the northwestern and southwestern highlands. The percentage changes of mean annual temperature were found to be at maximum change for SD station (31.30%) and at minimum change for DB station (7.60%). At the annual scale, maximum and minimum temperatures significantly increased in over 33% of the Basin at a rate of 0.1 and 0.15 C per decade, respectively; however, the western part (12%) of. There has been a continuous decrease in the duration and distribution of rainfall during the last 35 years. Results of the ensembles for CMIP3 and CMIP5 are generally indistinguishable regarding projected impacts on hydrology. Climate Change/Global Warming: Causes, Consequences and Response Mechanisms, CHAPTER SIX SOILS, NATURAL VEGETATION AND WILDLIFE RESOURCES OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN. Conversely, low temperatures are recorded fromNovember to February.It is not easy to observe distinct variation in temperature between seasons as the sun is alwayshigh in the tropics. Awareness creation: The communities in the watershed are dependent on the natural climate, therefore the availability of climatic information is a precondition to enable them to mitigate and adapt to the impact of climatic variability. The changes in the mean of hydrologic states and fluxes by the end of the 21st century are statistically robust, whereas changes in the variance are not found to be statistically significant. Elements and Controls of Weather and Climate, 5.3. ; ed. This is probably due to the fluctuation and variability of the seasonal and inter-annual rainfall pattern of the Beressa watershed during the last few decades, as indicated in Table3, which is similar to other studies (Muhire & Ahmed 2015; Zhao et al. 2008; Subash et al. 33 days from submission to first decision on average. Therefore, appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies have to be included in the development agenda to reverse the trend. The coefficient of variation is higher during the rainfall in the bega and belg seasons than the rainy season (kiremit rainfall season), as shown in Table2. The calculated PCI for seasonal as well as inter-annual rainfall distribution for the spatiotemporal time series is shown in Table2. Here are the average temperatures. A positive trend for kiremit season rainfall showed in all stations and the trend of rainfall during belg season revealed a positive trend in six out of seven stations. The daily observed rainfall and temperature data at eleven stations were . Results of correlation analysis between monthly and seasonal rainfall with crop production were insufficient to conclude the impact of rainfall and temperature on crop production. Elsewhere, in other parts of Ethiopia, similar conclusions are reached by Merasha (1999) and Seleshi & Zanke (2004) that the bega and belg rainfall seasons are more highly variable than the main rainy season (kiremit season). Multi-model average (MMA) projections additionally indicate continued trends towards more extreme conditions consistent with a warmer, wetter climate. Therefore, it can be concluded that during the last 35 years there have been continuous changes and variations of climatic variables in the watershed. Results from the spatial analysis show that the greatest increase in the number of consecutive dry days is around Siavonga, Kasama and Isoka, up to the border of Zambia and Tanzania. In view of this, the incidence of food shortage is a common occurrence. Therefore, the interannual rainfall distribution was very erratic. A climate impact study in the Upper Blue Nile, North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments. What causes climate change? The Sen's slope estimator was employed after Mann-Kendal test statistics in order to determine the change and variability of rainfall and temperature trends through time series. Annual total precipitation significantly reduces while the frequency of exceedance of the 95th and 99th percentile thresholds increases significantly. Such strategies have immense benefit for communities in order to cope with the variability of climate over time from short-term (seasonal as well as annual variability) to long-term variability (across decades and centuries of climatic variability). The CMIP5 datasets were statistically downscaled by using the climate model data for hydrologic modeling (CMhyd) tool and bias corrected using the distribution mapping method available in the CMhyd tool. The period from March to May, as often happens in Ethiopia, is the warmest of the year, albeit by a few degrees. Therefore, the projected rainfall and temperature have been corrected for biases by using empirical Quantile Mapping. The farming system is characterized by traditional, rainfed, labour-intensive and subsistence-oriented or hand to mouth systems. This study presents a largely indicator-based assessment of past and projected climate change, impacts and the associated vulnerabilities of and risks to ecosystems, agriculture, water recourses, forestry, bioclimatic conditions, human health and society in the RM, based on a wide range of observations and different model simulations. Mean annual minimum and maximum temperatures increased from 12.69 to 13.32 C and 26.43 to 26.91 C from 1981 to 2010, respectively. In nearly all cases the risk of rejecting the null hypothesis H0 when it is true is lower than 1%. In the rainfall distribution during belg and kiremit it was found that there was a moderate concentration of precipitation throughout the seasons, which shows that there is no uniform distribution, whereas during the bega season a significant change in the PCI was shown, thus the concentration of precipitation is increasing and rainfall has become more erratic. Rainfall and temperature trends detection is vital for water resources management and decision support systems in agro-hydrology. Based on these observations, the rainfall pattern and distribution of the area could be classified as irregular and erratic distribution. Five years moving average rainfall (19802014). 2001; Kurukulasuriya & Mendelsohn 2008). For instance, the variability, intensity and duration of temperature and rainfall affect crop production, especially for developing countries, particularly sub-Saharan countries in which the livelihoods of the population are dependent on subsistence and rainfed farming (Hulme et al. Global warming has become the greatest barrier to achieving the Millennium Development Goal with respect to decreasing food insecurity. This development mainly happens in July in Ethiopia and the Horn causingvariability and seasonality.The ITCZ shifts towards south of equator (Tropic of Capricorn) in January. Spatiotemporal Distribution of Rainfall Rainfall system in Ethiopia is characterized by complexities. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Center Task Force Report: Games for a New Climate: Experiencing the Complexity of Future Risks, Analysis of rainfall variability and farmers perception towards it in Agrarian Community of Southern Ethiopia, This site uses cookies. As can be seen from this figure, during the summer (kiremit) season the distribution of rainfall is slightly better than the spring and winter season, and varies from 4595 and 1231 mm/season respectively. Afar and parts ofEritrean coastal areas experience rainfall in this period. The MannKendall test results showed that the annual and seasonal rainfall trend was highly variable. (2012) found that due to global climate change the eastern part of Africa, including Ethiopia, was drying out. The mean annual temperature varied between 13 and 15.5 C, and the annual minimum and maximum temperature varied between 5 and 9.5 C, respectively. Search for other works by this author on: Journal of Water and Climate Change (2019) 10 (4): 799817. In line with the study by Wu et al. However, during bega season the trend of all stations was downward. Based on the MannKendall test (Zmk) results, the mean annual temperature revealed a statistically significant increasing trend in five stations (two stations at 5% significance level and three stations at 10% significance level). Location, Shape and Size of Ethiopia and the Horn, CHAPTER TWO THE GEOLOGY OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 2.2. (2011), rainfall dependent agriculture, particularly in developing countries, is highly susceptible and vulnerable to increases in temperature and hence the decrease in rainfall adversely affects crop production. They are limited to the lowlands in the peripheries.Away from the peripheries the land begins to rise gradually and considerably, culminating inpeaks in various parts of the country. 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